About the Content
Where would you launch a hypothetical coffee chain? Using Google Trends, I looked at potential destinations that would provide my coffee chain with the most potential customers, the least competitors, and the best opportunity to expand into other markets.
Our Coffee Shop
Getting into the end-user market by opening ten drive-thru coffee shops somewhere in the country in the next twelve months is the perfect move for our growing operation. The goal for this business is to launch a cross country coffee chain over the next few years, but these first twelve months are our most important. In order to successfully grow our company, we need to start off strong, meaning that we have to pick the perfect state to launch our coffee drive-thru in order to maximize profits and business, and I know just the state.
The Answer is Idaho
When you think of Idaho, what comes to mind? For me, I think of farmland, lush open plains, and hardworking people – not necessarily coffee. These Google Trend reports suggest otherwise.
Google Trends Ranking of “Coffee” Searches
I wanted to see where Idaho ranks nationally in their google searches for the word “Coffee”, and according to this chart, they rank tied for 17th with four other states, putting them in the top 34% of the country. While these numbers don’t jump out at you, it does carry some substantial weight. Idaho ranks higher than the stereotypical heavy coffee drinking states of New Hampshire, Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, while its 68% of shared google searches is only 5% away from being ranked in the top ten nationally.
Coffee isn’t just served hot anymore, but iced as well, giving coffee drinkers a type for all different kinds of weather. The important part for coffee chains like ours however is that we want to find a population that enjoys just as much hot coffee as iced coffee.
Delaware Likes it Cold
According to google trends, states like Delaware googled “Iced coffee” a staggering number of times in comparison to hot coffee, suggesting that coffee drinkers from Delaware drink considerably more iced coffee than hot coffee. If you’re a coffee shop that specializes in iced coffee, then these numbers are fantastic to you – but it would also mean that for the 16% of coffee drinkers and google users who might prefer their brew hot, they might want to find somewhere else to get their morning joe.
Finding the Split
What I wanted to find was a state that has as close to an even split as possible. This would mean that we could sell a nearly identical amount of hot coffee and iced coffee, boosting sales and attracting coffee drinkers from all over the state.
So, according to Google Trends, which state ranks number one for the most even amount of hot and cold coffee google searches?
Idaho.
Idaho’s iced coffee/hot coffee split is 42%-58% in favor of iced coffee, making it the only state in the country to have less than a 20% split between the two, and the state with the most “Hot coffee” google searches in the country. This gives us reason to expect that we could sell nearly as many hot coffees as iced coffees, giving us more financial freedom and the ability to mass promote all of our coffee beverages regardless of the coffee temperature and expect them to do well. This is an opportunity that we could likely only experience in a small handful of states, none of which having the potential that Idaho does.
Idaho’s Coffee Competitors
This potential however could be significantly hindered by our competitors, and as we know, Dunkin Donuts and Starbucks are they two kings of coffee in this country. If we were to set up shop in Idaho, what kind of interference would we expect from these two coffee giants?
Google trends suggests not a lot.
Idaho ranks 47th out of 51 (Washington DC being the only non-state) in the country with some of the fewest google searches of “Dunkin Donuts”, meaning that it’s likely that coffee drinkers in Idaho aren’t drinking a lot of Dunkin coffee, and they certainly aren’t googling where their closest Dunkin Donuts location is. But what about Starbucks? Idaho is right next to Starbucks home state of Washington. They have to be the premier coffee shop of the state, right?
Of the 51 US territories, Idaho ranks 43rd in “Starbucks” google searches. With so few “Starbucks” and “Dunkin Donuts” google searches, this gives us an incredible opportunity to move into Idaho and set up shop and face little to no competition from the big coffee chains. But It’s not just Idaho.
Expansion into Neighboring States
Montana and Wyoming would be the two perfect neighboring states to move into next for many of the same reasons that Idaho is our perfect launching state. Look at some of these numbers (the following are ranked out of the 50 US States and Washington DC).
Highest percentage of “Coffee” google searches according to Google Trends.
2. Montana (89%)
17. Wyoming (68%)
17. Idaho (68%)
Best hot coffee/iced coffee splits ranked nationally according to Google Trends.
1. Idaho (42% hot coffee, 58% iced coffee)
14. Montana (29 % hot coffee, 71% iced)
41. Wyoming (20% hot coffee, 80% iced)
Highest percentage of “Dunkin Donuts” google searches according to Google Trends.
45. Wyoming (5%)
46. Montana (5%)
47. Idaho (5%)
Highest percentage of “Starbucks” google searches according to Google Trends.
35. Wyoming (50%)
43. Idaho (47%)
45. Montana (44%)
Idaho’s Booming Potential
Idaho is the perfect state for us to launch our coffee drive-thru, and this evidence from Google Trends supports that. Idaho ranks in the top 34% of “Coffee” google searches, has the best iced coffee/hot coffee google search split in the US, and has some of the lowest number of “Dunkin Donuts” and “Starbucks” google searches in the country, limiting competition from others. Idaho also shares a border with Montana and Wyoming, two states which score very similarly to Idaho, which we could also thrive in. Idaho is bursting with potential and is waiting for somebody to move in and take advantage – and I think it should be us.
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